Hybrid Asset Allocation (HAA)
Monthly rotation across stocks, real estate, commodities and Treasuries, using TIPS momentum to select growth or defensive exposure.
Complete holding months: December 2015 through August 2026 · Starting equity: $100,000 · Net of modeled trading costs
Strategy FAQ
What is HAA?
Hybrid Asset Allocation was developed by Wouter Keller and JW Keuning. It combines momentum-based ETF selection with a TIPS filter that determines whether to use growth or defensive exposure.
How does it allocate?
Each month, average the trailing 1, 3, 6 and 12-month total returns. Positive TIP momentum allows four 25% slots from SPY, IWM, EFA, EEM, VNQ, PDBC, IEF and TLT. Nonpositive slots move to whichever of IEF or BIL has stronger momentum. If TIP momentum is nonpositive, the entire portfolio moves to that defensive choice.
Why does the backtest start in December 2015?
The backtest uses actual ETF history and reserves the first 12 months of common data for momentum calculations. Reconstructed pre-ETF histories are excluded.
What do Sharpe and drawdown mean here?
Sharpe uses daily returns, 252 trading sessions per year and a zero risk-free rate, matching ETF1. Maximum drawdown measures the largest peak-to-trough decline using daily portfolio values.
When are these results updated?
HAA refreshes in the shared weekday update batch, starting at 3:00 PM Pacific. Performance statistics use complete months; current positions are marked to the latest completed trading session. Always check the displayed dates. Email delivery is not enabled.
Equity Curve
HAA and SPY, starting with $100,000. Daily equity and drawdowns through 2026-08-31.
Monthly Returns
Net returns. Annual columns compound only the months shown; 2015 and 2026 are partial years. 60/40 means monthly rebalanced SPY/IEF.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Year Return | SPY Year | 60/40 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.9% | 3.5% | -1.5% | 9.2% | 3.0% | -1.8% | -2.0% | 3.3% | — | — | — | — | 19.7% | 13.1% | 7.3% |
| 2025 | 0.2% | -0.6% | -1.8% | -1.0% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 13.6% | 17.7% | 13.9% |
| 2024 | -2.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | -5.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 1.7% | -2.2% | 4.7% | -5.3% | 0.5% | 24.9% | 14.1% |
| 2023 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.1% | -1.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 26.2% | 16.8% |
| 2022 | -2.5% | -0.1% | 4.7% | -0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 3.4% | -18.2% | -16.7% |
| 2021 | 1.6% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | -2.0% | 5.9% | -3.9% | 4.7% | 22.6% | 28.7% | 15.1% |
| 2020 | -3.1% | -1.4% | 4.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 4.9% | 0.9% | -2.5% | -0.6% | 9.6% | 6.1% | 21.2% | 18.3% | 16.0% |
| 2019 | 0.6% | -0.7% | 3.6% | 0.3% | -1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 10.2% | 31.2% | 21.8% |
| 2018 | 5.5% | -4.6% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 2.7% | -0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 6.1% | -4.6% | -2.0% |
| 2017 | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.6% | -0.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 14.8% | 21.7% | 13.7% |
| 2016 | 3.3% | 1.5% | -0.1% | -0.6% | 1.2% | 4.3% | -0.1% | -0.5% | 0.0% | -3.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 7.7% |
| 2015 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -0.5% | -0.5% | -1.8% | -1.3% |
Portfolio Comparison
| Portfolio | CAGR | Annualized Volatility | Daily Max Drawdown | Final Equity ($100k) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAA net 5bp | 12.00% | 8.43% | -15.00% | $338,077 |
| SPY | 14.74% | 15.06% | -33.72% | $438,353 |
| 60 SPY 40 IEF | 9.35% | 9.76% | -21.29% | $261,447 |
After Publication: April 2023–August 2026
First full month after the public article; a historical check, not recorded live performance. Each portfolio is rebased to $100,000.
| Portfolio | CAGR | Annualized Volatility | Daily Max Drawdown | Final Equity ($100k) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAA net 5bp | 11.93% | 9.79% | -15.00% | $146,963 |
| SPY | 21.62% | 12.57% | -18.76% | $195,205 |
| 60 SPY 40 IEF | 13.38% | 8.89% | -10.56% | $153,599 |
Methodology
Hypothetical backtest using Yahoo Finance dividend/split-adjusted ETF closes, with dividends reinvested, no leverage and no taxes. The main result uses 0.05% per dollar bought or sold, monthly rebalancing from drifted weights and BIL as the cash proxy. ETF expenses are embedded in prices. Signals and fills at the same month-end close are idealized; the next-close sensitivity is shown above. Annualized volatility is calculated from monthly returns. The first 12 months of common ETF history are reserved for momentum. Initial allocation: November 30, 2015.
Reconstructed pre-ETF histories are excluded. Results depend on vendor adjustments and have not been cross-validated with a second vendor. This is our implementation of the published HAA rules, including the corrected defensive fallback, not a replication of Allocate Smartly’s proprietary data.
Member Signals
Members can view the dated allocation snapshot, confirmed monthly alert, position calculator and complete allocation history.